Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.073412 3.304791 3.564669 3.882839 4.268855 4.732183 5.347968
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.769538 3.064284 3.418136 3.888657 4.524126 5.401661 6.824646
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.574762 2.898475 3.303625 3.872977 4.704644 5.994069 8.543792
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.404708 2.735796 3.161076 3.780636 4.736237 6.354615 10.188843
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.335027 2.690040 3.160567 3.877757 5.067029 7.360753 14.980547
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.209405 2.558526 3.027350 3.756029 5.004666 7.573169 18.189700
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.098526 2.438715 2.899673 3.625944 4.900029 7.651296 21.564485
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.021362 2.359476 2.822865 3.565826 4.910085 8.015179 30.727126
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.996345 2.349311 2.843364 3.662196 5.237234 9.452383 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.989525 2.363182 2.899157 3.823569 5.746655 12.183136 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.950010 2.327944 2.877372 3.846520 5.959319 14.258927 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.915743 2.298167 2.861412 3.877333 6.202270 17.321390 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.838946 2.205729 2.745732 3.719095 5.943389 16.512331 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.801058 2.168818 2.716062 3.720975 6.116157 20.104553 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.762922 2.129657 2.680116 3.706544 6.242694 24.650917 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.713869 2.072355 2.611820 3.622392 6.147138 25.950512 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.701487 2.068817 2.630066 3.710886 6.603442 52.582046 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.653089 2.009445 2.553537 3.599932 6.390867 48.580530 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.605487 1.950088 2.475120 3.480957 6.137341 41.305275 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.571980 1.911098 2.429053 3.425833 6.088885 47.340757 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.566217 1.913640 2.451683 3.514155 6.553356 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.569930 1.930564 2.499224 3.661539 7.331266 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.552707 1.914563 2.489527 3.682448 7.625548 NaN NaN